NEW YORK: Ahead of Tuesday’s U.S. elections, Democrat
Hillary Clinton holds a four point lead over Republican Donald Trump in
the final national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll of the 2016 presidential race.
Mrs. Clinton gets support from 44 percent of likely voters, while
Trump gets 40 percent, the poll shows. Libertarian Party’s nominee Gary Johnson is at 6 percent, and the Green Party’s Jill Stein is at 2 percent.
In a two way contest without Johnson and Stein, Clinton’s advantage
over Trump expands to five points, 48 percent to 43 percent, according to the poll.
Mrs. Clinton’s current lead over Trump is down from the 11 point edge
she enjoyed in the four way horserace in the previous NBC/WSJ poll in mid October, 48 percent to 37 percent.
That poll was conducted after 2005 video of Trump surfaced with him
saying that “you can do anything” to women when you are a star like he is.
In the two way contest last month, Clinton’s lead was 10 points, 51
percent to 41 percent.
This newest poll conducted Nov. 3 5 of more than 1,200 likely voters
comes after the letter FBI Director James Comey sent to Congress on Oct. 28 saying that the FBI had “learned of the existence of emails that appear to be pertinent” to the investigation of Clinton.
Looking inside the numbers of the two way horserace, Clinton is ahead
of Trump among women (53 percent to 38 percent), African Americans (86 percent to 7 percent), Latinos (65 percent to 20 percent) and those ages 18 34 (55 percent to 32 percent).
Trump, meanwhile, leads among men (47 percent to 42 percent), seniors
(49 percent to 42 percent) and whites (53 percent to 38 percent).
But there’s a significant difference among whites: Those without
college degrees are breaking for Trump by a 2 to 1 margin, 60 percent to
30 percent.
Yet among whites with college degrees, Clinton is ahead by 10 points,
51 percent to 41 percent.
Clinton leads among those who are early voters, 53 percent to 39
percent, while Trump is up among those who will wait to vote on Election Day, 48 percent to 41 percent.
The NBC/WSJ poll also finds 52 percent of likely voters saying they
would be comfortable and prepared to support Clinton as president if she wins on Tuesday night, versus 46 percent who say they wouldn’t be comfortable.
That’s compared with just 43 percent of likely voters who say they
would be comfortable with Trump as president. Fifty four percent say
they’d be uncomfortable.
Meanwhile, Khizr Khan, the father of fallen Muslim American Army Capt.
Humayun Khan, is actively campaigning for Mrs. Clinton.
Khan, a Pakistan born lawyer, gained national attention when he spoke
alongside his wife, Ghazala, during the Democratic National Convention
(DNC) in July, lashing out at Trump for his proposal to ban Muslims from entering the United States.
Since the DNC, Khan has become a key ally for the Clinton campaign,
appearing in an ad for the nominee and repeatedly speaking out against Trump.
A Pakistani organization also released his video message in which
Khizr Khan, speaking in Urdu, urged Muslim Americans to to vote for
Clinton on Tuesday (Nov 8), arguing on the basis of the Constitution that Trump’s exclusion and disdain of the Muslim community was ultimately un American.
On Sunday, Khan conveyed his message to Muslim Americans through a robo call to 500,000 registered voters, organized by the Council on American Islamic Relations (CAIR), a Muslim advocacy group, according
to a press release. He has been speaking at community events While Muslim Americans comprise a mere 1% of the country’s population, their votes may play an outsized role in this election. The Muslim population is concentrated in several key battleground states including Florida, Virginia, Michigan, and Ohio, where the race is tight and will likely be decided by small margins
Muslims’ outsized influence is not without precedent. They leaned
Republican before the election of George W. Bush to the White House, in part due to conservative social values; 72% voted for Bush in 2000. The Muslim swing vote may have been the deciding factor in Florida and ultimately the election where margins were razor thin and Bush carried the state by a few hundred votes.
In the years since, the Muslim vote has drifted leftward as wars have
intensified in the Middle East. Trump’s declaration that “Islam hates us” and his proposal to ban Muslims from the US clinched the deal between Muslims and Democrats.
Khan’s speech at the DNC and subsequent calls for action among
Muslims appear to be working: Muslim activist and commentator Wajahat Ali dubbed American Muslims “Khizr Khan voters” in a recent column, arguing that Trump’s Islamophobia, highlighted by Khan, has boosted Muslim political engagement.
In June, CAIR reported that voter registration among American Muslims was up 30% from 2012. The US Council on Muslim Organizations, another advocacy group, has spent the past year registering thousands of Muslim voters across the country. On Nov. 2 it announced that a record breaking 1 million Muslims are currently registered to vote Tuesday. A CAIR survey found that 86% of Muslims intend to vote for Clinton.
“Trump’s bigotry was a blessing in disguise,” Zahir Bukhari, a
member of the Islamic Circle of North America who has been campaigning for Muslims to get out the vote, told the Wall Street Journal.
CAIR executive director Nihad Awad echoed the sentiment: “I usually don’t thank the candidates but I’d like to thank Trump for energizing the Muslim community.”